'The Last Best Place' for the '06 Montana Senate Race

I'm Calling this race for Tester [Permalink]

Wed Nov 08 02:12:43 EST 2006

Tester currently leads by 11,000 votes, with 65% of precints reporting. Tester is doing well, although not exceptionally in Helena, where he leads by about 3,000 votes. Tester is doing awesomely in Missoula, where Tester is ahead by nearly 13,000 votes.

The anticipated battleground of Billings hasn't really proved all that decisive, Tester is ahead by only about 1500 votes. However, that appears to be good enough to win on this night. Only 43% of Billings precints are reporting right now, but it seems unlikely to shift enough to make up the difference for Burns.

Ravalli appears to be the most decisive county at this point. Burns was expected to do well there in Hamilton, and he has won it, however only by a margin of 2,000 votes.

Burns is winning in many of the more rural counties, as expected, but I doubt the votes are there to make up the gap Tester has created. The only remaining question mark is Bozeman in Gallatin Co. Bozeman is expected to be Republican, but I think there is just too much for Burns to make up.

Tester Wins.

First Results In From Montana [Permalink]

Wed Nov 08 00:33:48 EST 2006

The first indicators from Montana look very good for Tester. Although only a fifth of the votes are in so far he is already ahead by 14,000 votes. Most importantly he's doing well in Yellowstone Co., where the key city of Billings is. As of 20 minutes ago Tester was ahead by about 800 votes in Billings.

As expected Tester is cleaing up in Great Falls. He's over 1,000 votes ahead of Burns there already.

Tester is also completely dominating Helena so far. I believe he was expected to perform well there, but he's carrying about 60% of the votes so far, up 2,000 on Burns.

As expected Tester is winning by large margins in heavily Democratic Butte and Missoula.

Hope for Burns may lie in that no results from Bozeman or Hamilton, both Republican strongholds, are in right now. Perhaps the pendulum will swing back to Burns as the night goes on.

Quick Virginia Sidenote [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 22:15:07 EST 2006

CNN just labeled Lynchburg as Richmond. Someone ought to let them know there is more than one city in this state.

Polls Close in Montana [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 22:02:44 EST 2006

I'm really just relieve this campaign is over. Candy Crowley was just talking about how Tester had not gotten nasty enough to take down Burns. Interesting thought, he has definately run the more passive campaign, letting Burns fire away and hoping he runs out of ammo. We'll see what happens.

What the hell is wrong with people? [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 21:54:20 EST 2006

SEEEE!!!!! I told you that politics in this country is moronic. Lincoln Chaffee, one of the finest, most upstanding people in American was just voted out of office in Rhode Island. The man's approval rating was 62%, he voted against the Iraq war! How did this guy lose? Because he's a Republican. People are too stupid to look beyond labels and at actual candidates. Let's admit it, politics in this country is dead, democracy is dead, this is complete crap.

Prediction [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 19:29:10 EST 2006

I'm going to go against the grain and say Conrad will come back and win this race with 50.4 percent of the vote. Somes polls showed the two candidates dead even last night...Conrad might just survive this one.

-Megan

Predictions [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 15:43:22 EST 2006

Tester was up 50-41 yesterday, my guess is the gap narrows a little on election day and Tester wins something like 47% to 43%

Prediction [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 13:55:46 EST 2006

I predict that this will be a close win, and that Tester will win with 52.5 percent voter support.

...just throwing it out there...because I have to...

- Rachel

Election Day Estimates [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 13:52:34 EST 2006

Elections are today, and I predict that Tester will beat Burns, getting 47.5 percent of the vote, as compared to Burns' 45.3 percent. How do i know? Maybe I'm psychic, or maybe I'm just guessing. We will have to wait and see. -Clancey

Did Burns Attack too Early? [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 05:36:25 EST 2006

Burns had this race more or less in control last year, even after he had gotten in some trouble with Abramoff. He was still at least even with Tester, perhaps slightly ahead before he ran his mouth this summer. All this seems to be the question of whether or not he began to attack too early. Was the early kick off to attacking Tester a clairvoyant move because Burns knew he was in a hole that would be hard to escape, or was it a premature move by a scared senator who had been acting like a hot head?

Burns has 17 ads on his website that were produced after Democrats chose Jon Tester in their primary. Of them 15 attack Tester, some quite forcefully. Here is a typical example:

These ads might have actually backfired for Burns. For many, the onslaught of negativity may have solidified his position as a candidate with minimal substance. It may also have enhanced the perception of Burns as a candidate backed by large, shady interests, a perception he gained after the Abramoff scandal and the way the current Republican administration and congress has been so close with big business. Although I'm not from Montana I imagine that sort of perception would be especially poisonous in such an independent state.

I was awake when Spiderbytes showed up in my mailbox [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 05:06:42 EST 2006

Kinda cool, dont think that's happened before.

Reasons i havent posted [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 05:02:37 EST 2006

See below, politics is useless. What's the value of even bothering to have elections if this is all they're about? I feel increasingly that Democracy is heading for failed experiment status. Our politics stink, who we elect doesn't make a real difference, and because no politician will date to even think about cutting entitlement programs our government could be insolvent in 20 years. Lest you mistake me for a raging conservative, that little Iraq adventure isn't exactly helping our monetary crisis either.

The Morass of Modern Politics [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 04:58:53 EST 2006

In my last entry I mentioned that retail politicians were not in vogue at the moment. I wanted to clarify that a bit because I think it's sort of an obvious statement. Perhaps, a better way of putting it would be 'retail politicians are never sexy, but at times they will ride a successful message to victory.' However, this is not a time for that. Politics is so ugly right now that I am unaware of anybody who is riding an issue to victory. Tester certainly isn't, at least in my view. He's big ticket item is that he's not Conrad Burns.

This trend is not limited to Montana, however. In closes races all over the country the campaigns are not about an ideology, they are about beating down the opponent. This is not an elegant ideological wave sweeping the country and a new generation of politicians into office. This is dislodging an entrenched group of Republicans in bitter combat.

In Montana obviously we have Jon Tester, a relatively minor state political personality who is assaulting the eminently incompetent Conrad Burns. However, what I think has been brilliant about Tester's campaign is that although he is on the strategic offensive because he is attack Burns, he has kept himself on the defensive tactically. Burns' aggressive, well-funded assaults have been under way since August, but I'm not sure how much they have really helped him. Perhaps this was the way it had to be because Burns was in deep trouble already, so he chose to attack while he still had time. Whatever the reason Tester seems to have absorbed the blow and will now waltz to victory.

Updates from other races to prove my point about the lack of issues in this cycle.

Rhode Island: This race always upsets me because I love Lincoln Chaffee so much. He's really a Republican in name anyway so why Whitehouse gets any traction simply by bashing him for it mystifies me. Perhaps that's why Whitehouse's lead is now virtually non-existent.

Virginia: Things are absolutely ugly down here. I haven't heard any talk of issues in weeks. It's all about who can get the most votes and what a useless person the other candidate is. Webb's favorite punch is that Allen sides with Bush 96% of the time, while Webb is attacked for writing books that have lascivious scenes and demean women.

Tennessee: Another ugly brawl. Both candidates are throwing nasty dirt on each other, most notably Corker's racially charged ad, pointing out Ford's attendance at a Playboy party. Personally, I thought the ad was a little overhyped. In bad taste? Absolutely, but aren't all political ads? Perhaps I am too naive about how divisive an issue interracial relationships are.

New Jersey: Once again a race that isn't really about an issue. The main thing here is corruption. New Jersey has the most corrupt politics in the Union and that was Republican challenger Tom Keane's calling card in his campaign against Menendez. It seems he has fallen short, however. The machine went to work for Menendez?

Latest Poll Shows Tester Pulling Away [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 04:34:21 EST 2006

The latest USA Today/Gallup poll shows Jon Tester with a 9% lead among 734 likely voters in Montana. That's compared with a poll that showed them about even two weeks ago and a 12 point lead for Burns before he scandalized himself. That is a statistically significant lead for Tester, one of the first I've seen in this campaign. I don't think I've ever seen an example of such a big lead being reversed on election day, perhaps tomorrow will change all that, but right now Tester seems to look good for the win.

In addition, Tester has received the endorsement of every major newspaper in Montana. I sort of get the feeling that nobody particularly likes Tester, but the alternative is just too ugly to contemplate.

One did always sort of have the sense he would pull this out. Burns is just too dirty of a candidate for people to trust, especially in Montana. He's a classic retail politician who can work a crowd and assemble a warchest, but that type of person is distinctly not in vogue at the moment. Tester has managed to navigated the minefield Burns laid out for him withouth a major scandal erupting to drag him down and as a result he looks like the winner.

Repetition [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 04:18:34 EST 2006

Manihack's repetition as he slid into delirium in that last answer reminded me of something.

Dear Collegian Editors,

In the future please refrain from putting repetitive and nonsensical headlines such as "This Spring students will take MCATs in the Spring." It really makes us reporters look like morons. Thanks.

The rotting youth of our country [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 04:07:50 EST 2006

I recently conducted an interview with a college student at around 4 a.m. The student would identify himself only as the Manihack. The young man claimed to have take the prescription drug aderall about 15 hours ago. Observe as he becomes increasingly spurious while I attempt to conduct a serious interview about the issues in Montana.

LBP: Let's play picture association. I'm going to show you a picture and you are going to say the first words that come to mind.

Jon Tester

M: "Violently offended. If someone who looks like that can even RUN for senate in montana i can guarantee i will never show my face in that state"

Conrad Burns

M: Kind of at a loss for words on this guy. I guess the first thing that popped into my head was high school history teacher.

Conrad Burns 2

M: "i'm gonna puke"

Stalin

M: AHH MOTHERLAND

Hilary Clinton

M: if that bitch becomes president im moving to canada

Borat

M: Greatest film of all time. Yeah it was one of the funniest movies i've ever seen. The entire theater was in tears at points. So offensive too.

At this point it was clear to me the young man was not healthy, concerned for his safety I began asking questions to make sure he was alright.

LBP: What time did you take it?

M: Like 15 hours ago.

LBP: Have you had an erection lasting more than 4 hours?

M: hahahaah no dude this shit makes your shit flaccid as hell

At that point I had no choice but to call police and medical personnel as the young man became increasingly delirious.

Battleground 9: Billings [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 03:47:30 EST 2006

Does anybody remember those awesome board games on a computer that TalonSoft used to put out? The Battleground series. Man those were some good times. I'm sure there's someone in the world over age 50 knows what I'm talking about.

Anyway, this is an interesting, if entirely unscientific article about Billings on New West

Remember that Wilson and many other agree that the state will be won and lost in Billings. Perhaps Burns could pull this out after all.

322 Comments [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 03:28:54 EST 2006

I have gotten 322 comments on my first blog post. Can any of you say that? Yeah didn't think so. Bet you wish you knew how to attract spambots. Nothing makes me feel quite as popular as finding 20 emails in my inbox from blojsom.

An expert interview [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 03:17:40 EST 2006

The first exciting piece of this marathon is this interview I did with Craig Wilson, the former Pittsburgh Pirates utility player who now plies his trade in the Bronx, errr, wait, this Craig Wilson is actually a political science professor at Montana State University Billings.

1. What are the most important issues in this campaign?

The Abramoff issue is certainly one of the major issues, but a lot of people are overlooking that it is not a new issue. I am not sure it will be decisive. The story broke over a year ago, so I'm not sure how much mileage the Democrats will actually get out of it. Burns was working from that deficit as well as the other factors against Republican incumbents. As a result he came out aggressively much earlier than incumbents normally do, at the start of the year. However, fending off the Abramoff issue has prevented him from gaining balance to his campaign because he cannot focus on the issues he wants to.

Tester's main issue is that Burns is a DC insider and someone who is infected by Washington culture. Of course, the Abramoff scandal ties into that issue closely.

Burns is trying to focus on his experience and the large amount of money he has brought to the state as a Senator. He is also trying to focus people on the fact that Tester is a liberal.

Another issue is the war on terror. Burns is in support of all the conflicts across the world including Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraq and Afghanistan as part of the war on terror. Tester's challenge is to separate out his position on Iraq from other wars on terror.

Energy is big issue. The price of oil is high. Burns has been accused of taking money from oil companies and giving millions in tax breaks to oil interests. The oil industry has ads against Tester.

2. In light of the Democratic majority in the state legislature are the political demographics of Montana changing?

The last 10 to 12 years have been a period of Republican dominance. That's begun to change with the election of a Democratic governor. The Democrats gained many seats in the state legislature as a result of gerrymandering. However, there are still more Republicans than Democrats. It's too soon to say the state is turning blue.

Max Baucus really ran with Bush when he was re-elected in a landslide in 2002 to the Senate, even though he is a Democrat.

3. How do you think the campaign will turn out in the end?

However, although Montana is not becoming a blue state that may not definitively answer the question of who will win the Senate race. The Republican president is unpopular nationally as is the war and incumbents are unpopular in general. Those factors make it more difficult for a Republican incumbent.

Many national commentators are calling this race for Tester. I think it is too early to do that. As I mentioned the Abramoff issue is an old one.

The ground game is starting to kick in. Lots of 527 groups are coming in from out of state, radio and television ads are kicking in. Montana is an attractive target because there are only 930,00 people so air time is inexpensive. Groups will also start with direct mail, phone calls and e-mail. It is only going to go downhill from here.

4. How is Montana different from other states politically?

The national perception of Montanans is not very accurate. Montanans are political conservatives in general, but they are fiscal conservatives and social liberals. They are also relatively well-educated, not a bunch of hicks.

The majority of Montanans do not approve of Bush's handling of office, the majority do not approve of the war, however both are probably about 5 percent more popular in Montana than in the country.

5. Have Burns' verbal missteps been a major topic?

Verbal missteps are not a new thing for Burns. However, they have not helped him and at some point they are going to hurt him. There becomes a point where the accumulation becomes just too much and it will damage him. His mistakes also distract people from the issues he is trying to drive home, just as Abramoff does.

6. How is the Montana Congressional race? Is it at all analogous to the Senate race?

The republican incumbent, Denny Rehberg, has decent popularity. He has kept his head low and let attention focus on the senate race. He is husbanding his money until close to election day. Because of all the focus on the senate his Democratic opponent has been unable to gain any traction.

7. Will national groups have much influence on the election?

Probably not. The high-profile nature of the election might encourage outside groups, but Montanans are somewhat wary of outside influence so there will probably not be much effect.

8. Could one of the candidates suffer a backlash from brining in national help?

Part of Tester's rap on Burns is that Burns is bringing in help from outsiders like Karl Rove and Elizabeth Dole to raise money. However at the same time he flies to Washington for fundraisers with bigshots.

9. How does Tester's image play in Montana?

It works for him because it is genuine. Tester is a bright, rural folksy guy. He does well in rural areas. You get the sense that he's not completely comfortable in a room full of people Burns is good at retail politics, he works a room well.

10. Is there any substance to the East-West division of industrial and agricultural parts of Montana? Will it effect the campaign?

The two historic divides in are east-west and urban-rural. Urban-rural is the more important today. There are 56 counties in Montana and eight urban counties. Two-thirds of the population lives in those urban counties. There has been tremendous growth, especially west of the continental divide. Hamilton and Bozeman are growing rapidly, but are heavily Republican. Missoula is the only growing Democratic area. Great Falls is the other historically Democratic area but has fallen behind the other cities.

The most important battleground might be Yellowstone County, where Billings is. It has 135,000 people and is relatively balanced.

Blog Marathon Kickoff [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 03:09:17 EST 2006

Alright, so here we are, finally at election day! Super. I'm a little bit behind on my blogging. Haven't really posted since September. Typically that's not such a big problem, but for those of you who don't realize it, this blog is worth something like half my grade in this class. In a valiant effort to recover some of those lost points I will now post with unequaled vigor until I collapse from exhaustion!

This literary adventure is unlikely to stay entirely focused on Montana senate races. Instead I will be covering a variety of topics and perhaps even doing a few humorous and funny things. Of course nobody will ever read these ravings. Or maybe somebody will. I'm picturing a junior high kid who is supposed to be reasearching politics running across this in a few years and wondering when he is going to find the sweet drugs those college kids were doing.

Woo Election Day is Here [Permalink]

Tue Nov 07 00:02:06 EST 2006

Start the party!

Wrap-Up: A Busy Week in Montana [Permalink]

Fri Nov 03 11:26:24 EST 2006

Bush addressed a few thousand supporters at the MetraPark arena in Billings on Thurday. "When the people of Montana cast their vote on Tuesday, your vote will determine more than who represents you," he said. "It will also determine what kind of federal judges sit on courts all across the United States."

This appearance came one day after Cheney stopped in the Flathead Valley.

- Missoulian.com

In the other camp, Gov. Brian Schweitzer and Democratic U.S. Sen. Max Baucus led a rally in the University of Montana's UC Theater on Thursday. Schweitzer urged the 400 participants to get out the vote and said that Missoula would decide the race.

"Missoula will decide if a man of the prairie, a man of Montana," will be the next U.S. senator, or if it will be an "auctioneer from Missouri ... a man bought and paid for by Washington, D.C., lobbyists."

- Missoulian.com

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is buying $310,000 worth of ads to help Burns' last week of campaigning. The ads started running Wednesday, and it is estimated that before Nov. 7, every Montana television viewer will see each ad 15 to 18 times.

- Montana Forum

The National Rifle Association is buying plastic bag wrap for newspapers that will advertise for Burns. Seven or eight newspapers will use this wrap, some before the election, and some on Nov. 7.

- Montana Forum

A friend of Jack Abramoff wrote a letter to the Whitefish Pilot last week describing the relationship between Burns staff and Abramoff. He wrote about the numerous free meals staff members ate at Abramoff's restaurant.

"Frankly, it was widely viewed in D.C. that Mr. Abramoff effectively exerted implicit control over Mr. Burns whenever he and his team needed to get something accomplished," reads the letter.

- Montana Forum

-Rachel Byrd

YouTube Review [Permalink]

Thu Nov 02 08:32:13 EST 2006

In Virginia, YouTube has revved up the George Allen- Jim Webb race in ways no technology medium has before. The video sharing site has been a huge force in publicizing Allen’s macaca gaffe and Webb’s views of women in the military. There are 361 videos listed under “George Allen” and “Jim Webb” has 166 videos.

But, what about Conrad and Jon???

Well, “Conrad Burns” has 117 videos, and “Jon Tester” only has 90. Although Montana voters can’t have access to the same plethora of mud-slinging videos as Virginia voters do, many of the Burns and Tester selections include debate videos, campaign ads and humorous commentary.

Under “Conrad Burns,” the first videos listed are not so flattering for the senator: Burns napping during a Senate hearing, Burns and those verbal gaffes and Burns with Abramoff. The first pro-Burns video is “Conrad Burns 100 percent,” a traditionally dry campaign ad that is 11 spots down on the list.

Since it is YouTube users who post the Burns and Tester videos on the site, it makes sense that Tester would have a more positive slew of video clips. Tester already has a more favorable name in the blogosphere, and his popularity has clearly resonated with YouTube users.

For example, YouTube user “arrowhead77” has posted more than 40 debate clips and anti-Burns video. On the other side, “seibenick” has posted many videos supporting the senator. “jontester” from Big Sandy, Mont., has been a YouTube user for three months.

The most humorous video, “Senator Comrade Burns,” asserts that “Burns has voted over 13 times to change the name of the White House to…the Kremlin!” The video also claims that Burns has voted more than 20 times to ditch the bald eagle and make the Chinese panda America’s symbol. The video tells voters: “This November, don’t vote Burns, vote American.”

Another great non-campaign ad is “Jon Tester-What a Guy.” Big band music plays in the background as Tester’s critics poke fun at his farm-boy appeal. Tester has dogs with no teeth, rickety barns, farmer friends and, if elected, would make having a flattop law.

While almost all of the videos listed under the candidates’ names are relevant to the race, I did find a gem of a video listed under “Jon Tester.” Check out “lil jon tester” not to hear a political argument, but to watch a group of high school boys dancing in front of their Escalade to who else, but the music of rapper Lil Jon.

- Megan

Look Who's Coming to Town [Permalink]

Tue Oct 31 08:27:19 EST 2006

Burns will have some visitors this week.

Chatting with Professors [Permalink]

Mon Oct 30 19:38:56 EST 2006

I asked three political science professors at the University of Montana at Missoula the same two questions: what are the most decisive issues for Montana voters and what can each candidate do to pull ahead in this last week before the election?

James Lopach, the political science department chair, specializes in American government and public law. He said that the decisive issues are national security, including the war in Iraq, and Senator Burns' experience and seniority.

Lopach said that the candidates need to keep doing what they have been doing throughout the campaign and to continue emphasizing the themes that have dominated both campaigns.

"For Burns, he has done a lot for the state over the last eighteen years," Lopach said. "Tester would be a fresh senator.

"He has to emphasize that Burns has lost sight of Montana and that he has been serving special interest groups. This is where the Abramoff scandal comes in."

Tester should also tie Burns to President Bush and the Iraq war, Lopach said.

Gregory Koger, an assistant professor specializing in American government, agreed that the war in Iraq will be the major issue that will "get Montanans off the couch to vote." Other influential issues include Burns' tie to Jack Abramoff and energy policy, particularly gas prices, Koger said.

"Burns is doing all that he can do, touring state feverishly," Koger said. "His challenge is to get Republicans in a red state to go with the candidate who is Republican.

"Tester needs to remind people why they were uncertain about Burns in the first place by bringing up the Abramoff affair and his ties to Bush."

Louis Hayes, a political science professor specializing in comparative government and politics and international relations, had harsher words for the Burns campaign.

The decisive issues, Hayes said, are Burns' poor record, including his connection to Abramoff, and his "lack of spectacular performance in the Senate."

"Burns has accumulated a poor record, otherwise he would be a shoe-in," Hayes said. "He has a tendency to say stupid things."

According to Hayes, the campaign is essentially already over, and the candidates should be preparing for the year ahead.

"Burns should be looking for work, and Tester should think about planning a place to live in Washington," Hayes said.

-Rachel Byrd

Bombing Google [Permalink]

Fri Oct 27 14:38:28 EDT 2006

Bloggers have found a new way to influence politics in their home states.

An article on MSNBC described the new tactic used by bloggers to help elect the political candidates they support. According to the article, published on October 25, bloggers are “bombing” Google, exploiting the search engine so that negative articles about the candidates they oppose come up at the beginning of searches. The bombing was started by liberal bloggers, but was soon adopted by conservative bloggers who hope to “fight fire with fire.” These bombers hope to influence undecided voters by bombarding them with negative information.

Aaron Weissman, who runs the blog Treasure State Judaism, does not participate in this bombing, but he does think that it can be an effective strategy for influencing public opinion. “I do believe that ‘bombing’ could be an extremely effective strategy. Think about it; most people do a great amount of research using the web. Putting a negative story on the top of a search about a candidate will influence voters on the fence to think less of that candidate.”

In the MSNBC article, Google spokesman Ricardo Reyes said “We don't condone the practice of Google-bombing or any other action that seeks to affect the integrity of our search results,” raising concerns about the ethical implications of manipulating search results.

Weissman does not agree. “I don't see any ethical problems with writing negative things about someone you don't like, and then trying to make sure that the most people possible read your words. It would be unethical to print lies about that person, but truth is always a good defense. Other than a taboo against spreading gossip … I don't see that any ethical taboos would be broken by such writings. All news (and by extension, political blogs) fall short of that taboo.”

- Clancey Denis

The Youth Vote (Part 2 of 2) [Permalink]

Wed Oct 25 23:56:15 EDT 2006

This is the second in a two-part series that will examine how the 18-25 voter bloc is impacting the race. I interviewed Will Selph, 19, the state chairman of the Montana College Republicans, and a University of Montana at Missoula student.

In the political draft known as Election Day, Montanans have two choices: the rookie Jon Tester or the veteran Conrad Burns. The College Republicans are urging young people to pick influence- Burns- over novelty- Tester.

“Look where you’re sending [Tester] to- position number 100 in the minority,” Selph said.

“Tester might as well be on the prom committee,” he added.

When Burns first started in the Senate, he sat in the back of the Senate Gallery and had the least influence, Selph explained. But last year, Burns was sitting just two rows from the front and was a member of the Senate Committee on Appropriations.

If Tester is elected on Nov. 7, he would be a rookie senator and Montana would lose its influence on important committees, Selph said.

However, among college-age and young Republicans at the University of Montana at Missoula, Selph does admit it can be difficult to get this message out.

“In Montana, Missoula has the reputation of being the Berkeley of the North,” he said. “The outspoken students tend to be liberal, but many moderate students never announce their political views and affiliation.”

He said there was a big conservative base underneath the more vocal liberal students, and that the challenge for the College Republicans was to reach out to them. The group has been able to attract conservative out-of-state students from states like Idaho and Washington, as well as a few Democrats.

“We’re not right-wing, gun-toting crazy people, and that appeals to people,” Selph said.

The cost of higher education is definitely a top student concern, he said. But the war in Iraq is something students think about on a more regular basis because many students have friends or peers serving in the military, Selph added.

Selph criticized the media for focusing on Burns’ infamous verbal gaffes, and said journalists had gone out of their way to portray the senator in a negative light.

He did disapprove of the way Burns criticized firefighters, but he thought the statement was out-of-character.

“The great thing about Conrad is he’s Conrad,” Selph said. “He’s never changed; he’s never gone Washington, D.C.”

Montanans do know what they will get from Burns, Selph said. He urged voters to be wary of what electing Tester could bring.

“You’re not electing Jon Tester, you’re electing Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi,” he said.

“What Jon is running on is nothing new,” Selph said. “He thinks he’s Ponce de Leon and he’s found the fountain of youth.”

- Megan

"About Even" [Permalink]

Tue Oct 24 16:03:42 EDT 2006

According to the most recent poll, Tester and Burns are "about even."

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C. for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC. From October 17-19, 625 likely Montana voters were interviewed by phone (selected by random from the last four digits of telephone numbers).

Tester has 46 percent voter support and Burns has 43 percent. Nine percent are undecided and Libertarian Stan Jones has 2 percent.

The margin of error is 4 percentage points, and because Tester's lead falls within the margin of error, the race is "about even" according to Associated Press polling guidelines.

The polling results and procedures can be found at pollster.com.

But before making a judgment based on polls like this one, it is important to point out the dangers in reading polling data. For example, when you go to pollster.com and click on Montana, you see this at the top of the page:

Tester 47, Burns 42

This dominant image deserves a closer look. Next to it is the margin of 5, meaning that Tester's support ranges from 42-52, and Burns' support ranges from 37-47. The ranges overlap, showing that the result is not as simple as, "Tester is leading Burns."

Above the statistics, in small print, we see that these numbers are an average of the last five polls.

It is important to look past the dominant image on a Web site and put some thought in to what the numbers represent.

According to Caroline Funk, who works for the Pew Research for the People and Press in Washington, there are three mistakes that are most common among journalists trying to interpret polling data: they cover polls that are not important, they over-interpret small differences in results, and they report nonsensical correlations.

As poll readers, we can overlook these common mistakes by getting our information from sites, such as pollster.com, that give readers the background information about the poll. Here are some things to keep in mind when you come across poll results in news stories: Who did the poll? Who paid for it? How many people were interviewed? How were they interviewed? How and when was the poll conducted? What are the sampling error margins for the poll? What questions were asked and in what order?

-Rachel Byrd

Finance Reform [Permalink]

Mon Oct 23 22:51:24 EDT 2006

Public Citizen is a non-profit consumer advocacy group fighting for openness and accountability in government. I recently had the chance to hear Craig Holman, a lobbyist for the organization who is especially concerned with campaign finance and lobby reform, explain exactly what Public Citizen wishes to achieve. He detailed the six benchmarks of their reform goals:

-break the corrupting link between lobbyists and Congress

- prohibit lobbyists from directly contributing to campaigns and ban fundraising on behalf of candidates

-ban gifts

- slow down the revolving door (the tendency of congressional representatives to be offered lucrative future employment in exchange for favors) by extending the period of time they must wait from one year to two and to ban them from participating in any lobbying activity during this time

-ban privately sponsored travel

-restructure the House and Senate Congressional Ethics Committees so that members of Congress do not watch over themselves

To help achieve these goals, Public Citizen sponsors votersfirstpledge.org, an online petition sent to all congressional representatives and all congressional candidates, urging them to pledge their support to these goals and to publicly financed campaigns. The website makes public which representatives and candidates have signed the pledge and who has not.

Neither Burns nor Tester has signed.

This is especially surprising for Tester, who claims on his website to support "campaign finance reform as well as banning all lobbyist gifts, meals and travel paid for by outside sources," goals clearly consistent with Public Citizen's pledge.

-Clancey Denis

The Youth Vote (Part 1 of 2) [Permalink]

Thu Oct 19 20:53:55 EDT 2006

This is the first in a two-part series that will examine how the 18-25 voter bloc is impacting the race. I interviewed Kim Pappas, Denver Henderson and Bryce Bennett to find out what the Young and College Democrats are doing to support Tester. An article about the College Republicans will soon follow.

Even when some party insiders doubted Jon Tester would move past the Democratic primary, many College and Young Democrats saw their man and stuck by him.

“He was always our candidate,” Bryce Bennett, 21, said. Bennett is the president of the State Board of College Democrats, and he oversees eight Young Democrats chapters around the state.

A group of College Democrats at UM-Missoula created Students for Tester when Tester was behind in the primary. Denver Henderson, 24, was the president of the group, and he said it started because students were so passionate about Tester and his politics.

“Starting on the local level gave [Tester] more of a populist appeal,” he said. “He really embodies what is Montana politics. It is easy to get excited about him.”

Tester’s voting record in the Montana Senate has shown that he supports reducing college tuition costs, Kim Pappas, 22, said. She is a large-school recruiter for Young Democrats in Montana.

Tester has said he favors lowering interest on student loans and creating programs that would help Montana families pay for college. He has criticized Conrad Burns for voting to cut tax credits and student loan programs and for voting against an increase in federal Pell grants.

While in the Montana Senate, Tester supported Gov. Brian Schweitzer’s “Best and Brightest” college scholarship program and increases in state funding for Montana colleges.

In addition to spreading Tester’s message, all three students said getting young people out to vote on Nov. 7 was crucial.

“The danger is Missoula is a very liberal city and some voters might assume Tester will win and not vote,” Henderson said. “That is the absolute worst thing.”

He said the College Democrats were calling its members every week, sending out mailings and setting up an informational table in the student union three days a week. The downside of organizing on a liberal campus, he said, was competing with other like-minded activist groups and their messages.

“By contrast, if we were on a more conservative campus, we would be one of the only outlets,” he said.

However, Jon Tester himself does appeal to many different types of Montanans, including independents and swing Republicans, Bennett said.

“Jon Tester really sells himself in a lot of ways,” he said. “He’s a down-to-earth farmer with a flat top haircut. He exemplifies anti-Washington.”

- Megan

National Democratic Party Presence [Permalink]

Wed Oct 18 17:31:19 EDT 2006

In a past interview, Montana Republican Party Chairman Karl Ohs mentioned the lack of National Democratic Party presence in Montana. He mentioned that the party is "out of step with Montana Democrats" and that Montana is not visited by leaders from the National Democratic Party because they would hurt Tester more than they would help him.

The Chairman of the Montana Democratic Party, Dennis McDonald, does not agree. He said Ohs' statement about the lack of national leadership may have been an attempt to be humorous, and he pointed out three Big Sky visitors:

-Bill Richardson, Democratic Governor of New Mexico

-Max Cleland, the Democratic Georgia senator from 1997-2003, is currently campaigning in the state

-Wesley Clark, who campaigned for the Democratic Party presidential nomination in 2004, was in Montana last week

"These three leaders have been here because they are in step with Montana values and Montana voters," McDonald said.

"Tester's ahead in this race because of his personal leadership abilities, because he represents the values of Montanans, because he represents the values of the middle class."

McDonald is confident that Tester, who he said is currently leading Burns by seven or more points, will win with a margin of more than ten points.

"Burns has repeatedly cooked his own goose and he's going to lose," McDonald said.

McDonald did not know of any future Montana visitors from the National Democratic Party.

-Rachel Byrd

Alternative Energy [Permalink]

Wed Oct 11 22:02:13 EDT 2006

During Monday's debate in Bozeman, Burns, Tester and Libertarian candidate Stan Jones were asked what they feel the most realistic alternative energy plan is for Montana and the nation. All three men enthusiastically explained the merits of alternative energy sources. Jones focused on the benefits of nuclear energy, while both Tester and Burns praised the agricultural approach of Ethanol. Tester, in his two-minute statement, attacked Burns for accepting money from oil and gasoline companies while praising alternative energy sources. Tester pointed out that, other than the candidates from Texas, Burns has accepted the most money from gasoline companies. According to opensecrets.org, this totals $224,275.

In light of this contradiction, I decided to look at Burns' voting records, detailed by Project Vote Smart, to see how he actually he voted on issues concerning energy. Most recently, he voted yes on the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006, which "provides for exploration, development, and production" of oil resources in the Gulf, and on the ANWR Revenues Amendment, which increases energy spending by $150 million every year from 2009-2011. While these two acts do stress the importance of a reliable energy source, they certainly do not support the idea of alternative energy. Burns also voted against the Reduction in Dependence on Foreign Oil act, which aimed to "improve the energy security of the United States and reduce dependence on foreign oil imports by 40 percent by 2025." In direct relation to alternative energy, Burns voted for the Environmental Effects Caused by Ethanol Amendment, which removes certain protections from Ethanol manufacturers and ensures that local governments and taxpayers do not have to pay for damages that may result from the production. While this is not a direct vote against Ethanol, it does not make its manufacture any easier.

However, in 2003, Burns voted for a Reduction of Foreign Oil Dependence Amendment. In 2001, he voted for Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE) Act, which provided funding for research into energy sources and in 2003 he voted for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Amendment, which supported research into hydrogen energy sources.

Conrad Burns seems to be confused as to where his loyalties are.

- Clancey Denis

Interview: John Watson, Political Cartoonist [Permalink]

Wed Oct 11 14:25:02 EDT 2006

Cartoonists have a tough job. They have to craft witty political analysis and stories without words. They have to create cartoons that people will actually understand.

I came across a cartoon by John Watson on Cece-in-Mt’s blog awhile back, and I thought it would be great to interview him about the race and his political cartooning. Watson has been a political cartoonist for nearly 40 years and served as the 1996-1997 president of the Montana Newspapers Association.

Watson said his first memory of Conrad Burns was in the late 1970s when Burns was working for a radio company called “The Northern Ag Network.” Watson said Burns gave the early morning stock reports to all of the state farmers and ranchers.

“I remember a poll taken shortly after he was first elected to the U.S. Senate,” Watson said of Burns. “The folks were asked why they voted for him. The general reply was ‘because Conrad gave us the stock report every morning.’”

His earliest memory of the Democratic challenger goes back to when Tester was first elected to the Montana Legislature and Watson sat next to him at a luncheon. Watson said he was very impressed with Tester’s ability to think fast on his feet and with his performance as the president of the Montana Senate.

Of his cartoons, Watson said he was most proud of the “one that nailed the problem of politics in general in Montana.” He said both parties are guilty of making the Burns-Tester race ugly, but that there was a lot at stake for the winner and the loser.

He expressed concern that political polarization has jeopardized free expression in the state’s newspapers.

“Montana has around 70 or so weekly newspapers and 11 dailies,” he said. “Political cartoons by me are not too popular as Republicans are starting to exert pressure on those editors.

“My belief has always been that newspapers have a duty to offer that conduit of communication between opinion writers and cartoonists to the readers and then from the readers to ‘letters to the editor.’ My opinion is that it has worked in the past but with the polarization of political parties it doesn't work well today.”

The “heated” Burns-Tester race has caught fire nationally because of Burns’ involvement with Abramoff, Watson said. With corruption being one of the most important issues in this race, he said, the Republicans have a lot to lose.

“Pork legislation has always been a thorn in the side of most voters," Watson explained. "I guess the Iraq War is biggest on people's minds and most everyone I've talked to think it has been one gigantic mistake.”

High gas prices in the state have also driven support away from the national Republican Party, he said.

However, the race’s outcome will hinge on where voters channel this anger.

“It all comes down to just how upset Republicans are when they step into the voting booth,” Watson said. “And, how many Democrats turn out to vote.”

- Megan

Bozeman Debate [Permalink]

Tue Oct 10 21:19:54 EDT 2006

Check out yesterday's debate between Burns and Tester on YouTube.

Lobbying in Montana [Permalink]

Sun Oct 08 19:46:08 EDT 2006

University of Montana and Montana State University have been increasing the amount of money spent on lobbyists and receiving more federal earmarks, according to a Montana Forum article.

Montana State University has increased its lobbyist pay 40 percent in recent years, and received $21.6 million in federal earmarks last year.

University of Montana's federal earmarks went from $7 million in 2001 to $14 million.

The two universities have received about $200 million in federal earmarks in recent years.

Is this information troubling to anyone? What is being done with this earmarked money, and how much of it is going back to lobbyists in Washington, D.C.?

On the same topic, here are some interesting figures found in a Public Citzen report, concerning Senator Conrad Burns and lobbying: "The Bankrollers: Lobbyists' Payments to the Lawmakers They Court: 1998-2006."

-Conrad Burns is one of 18 senators who have received at least $500,000 from lobbyists since 1998: at the time of the study, he had received $737,868.

-For the 2006 cycle, Burns has received $268,899 from lobbyists, placing him at number 5 among the Top 20 Senate Recipients.

-Burns has received from the following lobbyists since 1998:

-Stewart Van Scoyoc: $22,000

-Denny and Sandra Miller: $32,500

-Stewart Hall: $6,000

- Rachel Byrd

Montana Demographics [Permalink]

Fri Oct 06 17:24:58 EDT 2006

According to Census and Economic Information Center, Montana is the 44th most populous state in the nation. As of July 1st, 2005, the state was home to 935,670 people, more than seven million fewer people than New York City alone. Only three cities, Missoula, Great Falls, and Billings, have populations over 50,000. In July of 2005, the town of Ismay was home to only 25 people.

The average household income in Montana from 2003-2005 was $36,200, only higher than Arkansas, West Virginia and Mississippi. The state's poverty rate in 2005 was 14 percent, higher than the national 12.7 percent, and 18 percent of the population is without health insurance, higher than the national average of 15.7 percent.

While these statistics certainly do not paint a bleak picture for the people of Montana, they do present unique challenges, both in campaign tactics and in representation. Burns and Tester have both addressed the concerns of rural farmers and ranchers in their campaign platforms; both claim that agricultural matters are a primary focus in their bids for senate and both address health care and the tax code.

How are Tester and Burns tailoring their campaigns to reach their different constituents? Stay tuned to hear what they say.

- Clancey Denis

[Permalink]

Fri Oct 06 15:57:48 EDT 2006

Check out an article about The Last Best Place in the Missoula Independent. We're glad you can hear us out West!

No Clear Answers [Permalink]

Thu Oct 05 08:47:41 EDT 2006

Montana is a pollster's worst nightmare.

A Reuters/ Zogby poll released today shows Tester leading Burns 46 percent to 42 percent.

A poll by the Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of registered Montana voters revealed that 45 of respondents said they would rather elect Republicans to the state House, while 42 of respondents said they would prefer to cast their votes for Democrats. The remaining 13 percent said they were unsure.

Currently, there is no majority in the 100-member House, and the Democrats have a four-seat advantage over Republicans in the Senate. There isn’t much wiggle room for either party in November, but could developments in the Burns-Tester race and the Foley/ House Republican leadership scandal skew results in Helena?

Tester’s popularity can only help the state Democratic candidates, State Sen. Carolyn Squires said. She is the Democratic Whip.

“Jon helps us out with his visibility,” Squires said. “In his conversations about healthcare and immigration, he brings out awareness among Montanans.”

She also credited Tester for attracting a large turnout of Missoula Democrats to the Democratic primary in June.

“Tester has put fire into the state,” she said. “He has the good ‘ol boy syndrome.

“To me, I’m counting on Jon. I can’t stress enough on how he’s pulled the Democrats up.”

On the other side of the political realm, causes and effects aren’t as clear. With scandals of all kinds running rampant in the Republican Party this year, it seems the best thing Montanan Republicans can do is stick close to home.

State Rep. Dennis Himmelberger said he wasn’t sure how approval ratings of the national Republicans in his party would affect his re-election campaign.

“Frankly that’s a tough question,” Himmelberger said. “There are several possibilities. If people who are frustrated with [the Burns-Tester] race stay home because of disgust, it could affect the [our] races as well. The reverse would be that [the Burns-Tester race] energizes both bases.”

Himmelberger said that, so far, the Burns factor had not negatively impacted his re-election campaign as a Republican in Billings.

“To be truthful, it’s a little surprising to me,” he said. “People have separated the two races. A lot of voters in Montana want to consider themselves independent.”

When asked about the Foley Factor, Himmelberger quickly replied, “That’s the $50 million question.”

The Republican representative did weigh in on another external force on the Burns-Tester race: Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer.

“I think the governor has somewhat of an impact,” Himmelberger said. “Thus far, I haven’t seen a governor as involved in the legislature as much [as Schweitzer]. He is a dominant governor and Democrats have a tendency to wait on the wagon to see what he does.”

He said Tester’s television ads with the governor wouldn’t hurt the state senator because Schweitzer is popular. However, Himmelberger said Tester was referring too much to the governor’s policies, and making the governor “the lead dog” in the campaign.

And even if the politicians themselves don’t deter Montanans from voting, then it looks like we still have to worry about the ballots.

- Megan

The Foley Factor? [Permalink]

Tue Oct 03 20:00:46 EDT 2006

Revelations this week that Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) exchanged sexually graphic e-mails with a 16-year-old House page could hurt Republicans...everywhere.

Analysis by The Washington Post's Dan Balz & Jim VandeHei predicts that the scandal could reduce turnout of reliable Republican groups (such as Christian conservatives and soccer moms). Less GOP-voters at the polls endangers Republican candidates- in both chambers. The Last Best Place will follow the scandal as it sends its ripples west.

- Megan

Tester Ad Not Specific Enough? [Permalink]

Tue Oct 03 13:47:45 EDT 2006

Tester's 30-second television ad that began airing two weeks ago condemns broad practices and makes only a vague reference to Burns.

The ad opens with Tester and his wife, Sharla, on their farm, and then switches to Tester talking. Here's the ad script, as found at missoulian.com:

"For Sharla and me, working hard and watching every penny is the only way to make ends meet. So the way Washington's spending our money just isn't right. It's time we stand up to oil company giveaways, no-bid contracts for Halliburton, and billions in pork, including bridges to nowhere-all saddling our kids with more and more debt. This won't get me contributions from Jack Abramoff, but it's sure the right thing to do for Montana."

According to Montana Republican Party Chairman Karl Ohs, this ad is not out of the ordinary and Tester often fails to say what he stands for. Ohs attributed Tester's vagueness to the disconnected relationship between national and state government.

"The National Democratic Party is out of step with Montana Democrats," Ohs said. "We haven't seen any leadership here from the national party.

"No one stops in Montana because they realize that they would hurt [Tester] more than they would help him."

Ohs said that this disconnect has to do with the war in Iraq and other major issues.

So how can Tester get more specific? Ohs cited three main areas where Tester has made broad claims but has offered no specific plan of action: the war in Iraq, healthcare and energy.

"Tester talks about problems, but not about solutions," Ohs said.

Ohs said that the best response to theses ads from Burns camp would be to focus on what the senator has done for Montana.

"The campaign is going well, despite the polls," Ohs said. "I know what the real numbers are, and I would say the campaign is about on track."

-Rachel Byrd

The New Democratic Spine [Permalink]

Fri Sep 29 12:11:55 EDT 2006

An original take on Tester's role in the Democratic Party:

According to new research by the Political Cortex, the Testorian Region is the core of the Democratic spine. It is bound on the top by the Clintonian Region and by the Lamontian Region at the bottom. The Political Cortex predicts that the Democratic Spine will take the party to victory in November.

- Megan

Campaign Finance [Permalink]

Wed Sep 27 21:03:10 EDT 2006

The Center for Responsive Politics and opensecrets.org compile records of financial contributions to political campaigns and make the information available to the public. All the donation information, numbers and statistics come from these sources. As explained on the opensecrets.org, many of the numbers do not exactly add up. The Federal Election Commission reports the totals almost immediately, while the detailed breakdowns take longer to determine and may not be quite as accurate.

Since last reported on June 30, 2006, Conrad Burns has raised $6,786,898 in his campaign for re-election. Of that total, $2,504,756 has come from PAC donations and $3,791,951 has come from individuals. Twenty-two percent of these individual contributions, $787,631, are from sources within Montana; 78 percent, $2,744,384, come from out of state sources. The vast majority of PAC contributions came from business sources, the top five donors being IDT Corp, Blue Cross/Blue Shield, Ust Inc., AT&T Inc., BellSouth Corp. and Bresnan Communications.

Jon Tester has raised a total of $1,714,055 in his campaign against Burns. Of this total, PAC donations make up for $200,834 and individual donations total $1,470,841. Of the individual donations, 53 percent, $389,907, come from in state, and 47 percent, $351,480, come from out of state donors. Unlike Burns, Tester's PAC contributions are not heavily dominated by one kind of organization. A slight majority comes from ideological sources, closely followed by labor organizations; business sources are far behind. Tester's top five contributors are Glacier PAC, Intl Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, Laborers Union, United Transportation Union, GMG Capital Partners, and the State of Montana.

It is not surprising that Burns has raised so much more money than Tester. He has been in office since 1988 and has surely forged many more connections than his opponent has. It is also not surprising that so much of Burns' money comes from sources outside of Montana. These connections stem from his time in Washington, not Montana, and can be expected to be more diverse that Tester's. What is surprising is that despite these numbers, the latest Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted on September 12, shows that Tester leads Burns 52 percent to 43 percent. Have Burns' continual verbal blunders caught up with him? Is this going to be a race where money is not one of the largest factors in determining the outcome? Only time will tell.

- Clancey Denis

New Faces in the Treasure State [Permalink]

Wed Sep 27 00:25:09 EDT 2006

The non-native Montanan population is growing…and leaning left.

In a state where there are more elk, deer and antelope populations than people, the Republican Party has had a strong base in Montana since the 1980s and 1990s. However, recent changes in demographics could jeopardize the GOP stronghold in the Treasure State.

“The state’s population is growing again in the western third of the state,” said Jerry Calvert, a political science professor at Montana State University. “One can hypothesize that that’s not good for Burns.”

The population of Evergreen, Montana, for example, grew 51 percent in the 1990s, and Missoula had a 33 percent population increase during this time period.

Much of the population increase in the western portion of the state is due to an influx of out-of-staters building second homes in the area, Calvert said. These newcomers are generally quite wealthy and skew to the left politically.

USA Today reported today that many other areas in the West are witnessing population growth that could alter the area’s political landscape. In 2004, the article reports, Montana Democrats took control of the governor’s mansion and the state Senate and tied for control of the House.

Amy Cook of The Cook Political Report attributed part of this party shifting in the West to an increase in Hispanic populations. Figures from the 2000 census show the Hispanic population in Montana grew 40.3 percent in the 1990s, and most of these gains were in the western part of the state and in urban areas. (Keep in mind, however, that Hispanics only made up 2.4 percent of Montanans in 2004)

The bad news for Burns is that Calvert is predicting Tester will win western Yellowstone County, the “linchpin” needed to take this race.

And it just so happens that Yellowstone County also saw a 45 percent increase in Hispanic populations over the 1990s….Hmmm….pattern anyone?

- Megan

Great News Report on Blogging in MT [Permalink]

Tue Sep 26 08:17:50 EDT 2006

Jay Stevens of 4&20 blackbirds sent me this great link to a PBS Now report on the Left Blogosphere and its influence in Montana. The report is informative, in-depth and helpful to us bloggers back east who are more removed from Montana's political culture.

-Megan

Inappropriate Ad? [Permalink]

Mon Sep 25 22:53:00 EDT 2006

Some Montana television stations have pulled an ad produced by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee that contains what they feel to be inappropriate language. The ad, which quotes Conrad Burns as saying "piss poor" and "god damned thing," criticizes the senator for ridiculing firefighters this past July.

-Clancey Denis

"Target" vs "Subject" [Permalink]

Sun Sep 24 23:27:14 EDT 2006

And so the debate over the Burns-Abramoff connection continues...

According to a Washington Post article today, Burns' campaign manager Erik Iverson said that the senator's lawyer checked with the Justice Department, which said that "Burns is not the target" of its investigation.

This statement was not specific enough to satisfy some. A "subject" is someone under investigation who could up upgraded to "target" status, according to the article. Burns is not a target, but he could still be a subject.

OK guys, how long is this going to go on? Let's get more specific and ask more questions. How can we not?

- Rachel Byrd

The Burns-Abramoff Connection: A Republican's View [Permalink]

Sun Sep 24 13:30:13 EDT 2006

Montana Republican Party Executive Director Chuck Denowh has not seen Tester's latest web-based ad concerning the Burns-Abramoff connection, but he did have a lot to say about the accusations.

"In Montana, Burns has been very candid about his dealings," Denowh said in our phone conversation. "Many New York Times articles have said that Burns is not under investigation. Most voters are satisfied with this."

I checked out the New York Times online archive and didn't come up with any article that clearly states, "Burns is not under investigation." Maybe I'm not looking hard enough. Please, prove me wrong.

I did find this in a Washington Post article:

"In Montana, Sen. Conrad Burns (R) is apparently not under investigation but has been roasted in the news media by Democrat Jon Tester because of his ties to Abramoff. A former top aide to Burns worked with Abramoff's firm, and the senator received about $150,000 from Abramoff's lobbying team and clients."

Apparently? Not so convincing.

According to this Montana Forum article, the Justice Department continues to refuse to comment on the investigation. Montana Democratic Party Executive Director Jim Farrell made the following comment:

"We need to hear directly from Senator Burns' criminal defense attorney himself, who must positively confirm to the media and to the people of Montana that he spoke with representatives of the U.S. Department Justice on this matter."

I told Mr. Denowh that according to Jessica Rhoades, the communications director for the Montana Democratic Party, the Democratic Party has asked Burns for proof that he is not under investigation...

"This is like the old classic question, 'are you still beating your wife?' This is a loaded statement. Burns has been very upfront. He says that he is not under investigation. As far as a formal statement from the Justice Department or the Senate, I've never seen them respond to a political party in this way. I could say the same thing about Tester. We have not asked for written proof that he is not under investigation.

"The Montana Democratic Party, the aggressors here, has received money from Abramoff and his clients. The state committee, who Jessica Rhoades works for, has received money. This is widespread in DC."

This is the first time I have heard about Montana Democrats receiving money. Too bad I can't find anything about this in the papers. Again, maybe I'm not looking in the right places...follow up to come.

I asked Mr. Denowh why the Republicans haven't brought up Tester's connection to Abramoff.

"In August 2005, the Democrats started this attack and we made our rebuttal. The Democrats are pushing the story now, but we don't have anything to add. This is not really newsworthy."

I read Mr. Denowh a statement Mrs. Rhoades made, accusing Burns of downplaying his connection to Abramoff.

"What Rhoades really means is that he's trying to focus on real issues like health care and the war in Iraq. These are issues that the Democrats aren't dealing with. She is trying to deflect and put up smoke screens against issues that should be faced."

- Rachel Byrd

Blogs Worth Looking At [Permalink]

Fri Sep 22 13:15:33 EDT 2006

Intelligent Discontent- Three Montana liberals set out to publicize Burns' shortcomings, comment on recent campaign activity and bring up issues that mainstream media is failing to address. The entries are short and sweet, and a few have even made me chuckle.

Wrong Dog's Life Chest- This is one of my favorites. A Helena man focuses on Montana politics, throwing in some input on national issues. Recent posts have included his thoughts on letters to the Helena IR editor, a book review, and questions he plans on posing to Burns and Tester during the Q&A after their Hamilton debate. Postings are fairly long, and there's a lot of scrolling involved, but it's worth the finger work to browse these well-investigated rebuttals to Montana Republican politics.

Pragmatic Revolt- These liberal-leaning posts cover a wide rang of topics, from Montana politics and elections to national issues. Category links in the sidebar make it easy to search this blog if you are looking for something in particular, such as Alternative Fuels. I would say that this is one of the best blogs I've seen in terms of organization.

Montana Forum- This is a GREAT straight-news sight, offering the state's headlines. The 'Politics and Elections' section is a good place to get the recent news on the Senate race. The Forum Message Board is divided in to sections for possible discussion on topics related to agriculture, arts and culture, elections and more. Too bad there were about 14 posts last time I checked...it seems like more people should be reading the news from this well-organized site, then clicking 'Discussion' to start the conversation...anyone? Bueller?

Montana Rabble Rousing- This site may be an OK place to get a brief summary of some regional and national news, with a strong conservative slan...that is, if you want to brush up on the events of March 2006. There are some interesting postings from the summer months and in sifting through the archives, I found a thoughtful analysis of the Patriot Act. But the only thing I see that is up to date on are some "Urban Renewal" pictures of buildings (nothing wrong with this, but if you're looking for info on the Senate race, this is not the place).

- Rachel Byrd

How Do People Form Political Opinions? [Permalink]

Thu Sep 21 13:03:08 EDT 2006

While reading different articles and blogs on the Burns-Tester senate race, I began to wonder how people formed their political opinions apart from looking at the issues that they care about. Clearly, the media plays a large part in telling people what they should think, but people do not always believe what they are told. I began to look at influential bodies in the state of Montana, and realized that while non-profit organization cannot directly involve themselves in politics, they very clearly have political agendas.

I asked Ethel MacDonald, a representative of Missoula's Jeannette Rankin Peace Center, a non-profit organization that supports equality, justice and non-violence, what she felt her organization's role in politics is.

Q: As an organization that cannot directly support one candidate, what do you see as your role in state politics, an arena that clearly relates to your organization’s ideals?

A: We encourage our members to vote and to talk to their acquaintances about the issues. We also encourage individuals to speak up publicly and communicate with legislatures concerning legislation on the issues that concern us -- at a state level, justice & sustainability issues especially -- raise minimum wage, health issues. We support other groups' efforts through publicizing them in our weekly e-newsletter. We believe that an informed, educated public, engaged in dialogue together, is a key component of our democracy. Therefore, we work to create those opportunities where individuals can network and dialogue together about the issues and ideas for change that come out of such dialogue.

Q: Do you, as an organization, discuss politics publicly, without supporting a candidate?

A: Politics is the art of governing, and we are all naturally involved in the process as active and engaged constituents. It would be wrong to assume that involved citizens did not have political opinions, and our members are involved, but it is not the organization's role to endorse or support an opinion. We may come out strongly for an issue that is directly related to our mission, and regularly discuss these issues with our politicians and candidates as a means of highlighting a position on an issue, and advancing the agenda of nonviolence and social justice. Politicians and those running for office need education on the issues as well, and hopefully benefit from such. A speaker at a JRPC function might make political remarks, particularly concerning foreign policy. Our role is to focus on the issues - not the opinions -- that relate to our mission, and to create the opportunities for people to come together in dialogue.

Q: How do you manage your role of informing the public in an unbiased manner when so many of your members clearly support one candidate?

A: We don't pretend to be unbiased when it comes to the issues -- violence only furthers violence; nobody wins a war; cutting taxes for the wealthy is wrong when the poor go hungry; we can't fight terrorism by using it; war is terrorism etc. We stick with the issues and assume our members will come to their own conclusions about which candidate best represents their ethics. We can also inform our members if another group, for example an anti-war group, has given its support to one candidate or the other and let them come to their own conclusions.

Q: Do you feel that publicizing comments made by candidates is considered partisan, or simply passing on available information?

A: It would be very, very difficult to publicize comments without seeming partisan, and we tend to avoid those situations. We may call attention to a media piece that quotes a particular candidate, but we would be doing so for the value of the piece as a whole to the dialogue. There are some very partisan opinions out there, and many people coming to JRPC have been disappointed by our refusal as an organization to engage in further dividing our nation. We want instead to bring people's attention to the things that help to build bridges and create non-violent skills. Nonviolence means doing no harm in thought, word or action.

Q: What responsibilities to the public do you see groups such as yours as having?

A: Our responsibility is to carry out our mission statement: "to empower people to act locally to build a socially just, non-violent, and ecologically sustainable society." This means not only education and inspiration to action to right the wrongs we see but to work on achieving a state of non-violence in our daily interactions and within ourselves. We also provide a place and a community of solace in a world full of violence.

-Clancey Denis

5 More Cool Blogs [Permalink]

Thu Sep 21 01:35:59 EDT 2006

Continuing with our look at the Top 20 blogs covering Montana, here are 5 blogs that I liked reading and have good information if you're interested in Montana politics.

These are in no particular order...

1. Cece-in-Mt Cece is one of the first blogs I read when I started looking around for Montana blogs and I keep coming back to her site for great info. She has new information up fairly consistently and she is fairly knowledgeable about her topics. The blog is pretty clearly on the left, but I don't find her style too overbearing. She's not just ranting, she makes you think about what you're reading, whether you agree or disagree with her. The one criticism I'd offer of her is that her posts are pretty long. However, I think this is a great blog if you're willing to sit down and read something useful.

2. The Montana Misanthrope The subtitle of this blog is "when kindness is constantly repaid with a kick in the teeth." It's a fitting warning because this blog pulls no punches. He is unabashedly conservative and strongly antagonistic toward Democrats and liberals. He does mention in one post that Repbulicans are not perfect either, so I think he deserves some credit as an independent thinker. He is also a nice counterpoint to the liberal blogs because he is so forthright with his opinions, something that seems a lot more common on the left. I suppose I would like to see a little more evidence to back up some of his assertions, but it's not as if we're writing a sacred text here, just getting out some ideas.

3. R Squared This is not strictly a political blog, but I have really enjoyed reading it tonight. It is put together by a chemical engineer named Robert Rapier who works in the energy business. He does not post everyday but has about one major post a week in which he discusses energy issues, typically in reference to politics. It's a great, informative blog about one of the most important political issues in America right now.

4. Montana Fem I really enjoyed reading this blog. It has a little more national focus and her latest vendetta is against Dennis Rehberg rather than Conrad, but she has a lot of interesting stuff on here. I think this might be the most toughtful of the blogs I've read. It calmed me after a night of searching for 5 more blogs that aren't terrible after my classmates had already claimed 15. I hope I've found some nuggets here that they missed.

5. Dave Budge The owner of the "best liberarian web log" in Montana. This one tends to meander a bit, but I found it pretty entertaining and I liked what he had to say about politics. Mostly straight to the point posts, with decent information to back it up. Keeps new content up fairly frequently as well, which is nice.

-af

Clancey's Top 5 Montana Blogs [Permalink]

Wed Sep 20 19:57:14 EDT 2006

Liberal Wako- This guy makes no attempts to hide his political leanings. The name of blog alone is a dead give away for his extremely liberal ideology. He does not focus on the senate race in particular, but does primarily discuss Montana politics and politics in general. The format of the blog is very clean; it has no annoying graphics or enhancements and is very easy to navigate. My main complaint is that you never find out who 'he' is. There is no biography, or even a name, to attach to the words. In one entry, he did mention that he ran for the legislature in House District 67 in 2004, but there is no other identifying information. I enjoy reading the ranting on this blog, but I would like to know who the author is and what credentials he has.

A Chicken Is Not Pillage- Despite the author's clear liberal political ideology, he does not rant and rave, as Liberal Wako tends to do. He is very informed about the subjects he writes about and, even if he feels passionately about the topic, he rationally explains his position. However, also like Liberal Wako, the author provides no biography or credentials. An 'email me' button reveals that the authors email address as rkailey@montana.edu, but short of the inference that his name begins with an R, I have no idea who the author really is.

Electric City Weblog- I am beginning to notice a trend. Short of telling us that he is a male from Montana, the author of this conservative blog puts forth no biographical information. That aside, this blog discusses national politics more than he discusses state politics, but he localizes his writing fairly well. Not all of his posts are relevant to politics, he discusses his personal life on occasion, but not enough to distract from the political entries. I also like that fact that while he is decidedly conservative, the author does give space to ideas that span the political gamut. Even if he dismisses the liberal thoughts that he discovers and shares, he does not put them down on principle; rather, he finds real faults with them.

Montana Graffiti- Again, no biographical information. I know that the poster is named Sally T, but nothing else. What I like about this blog is that it is very news-based. Every entry is about politics in some way and she lists all her news resources on the right side of the blog. While her entries are based on issues, they are very conservatively biased. She does not hesitate to ridicule Democrats by calling them names and inserting unflattering graphics, but she does have intelligent opinions. I really don't like the format of this blog. The brick wall background and the graffiti font fit well with the name of the blog, but they are distracting from the content.

Rebels Are We!- In terms of layout, this is my favorite blog. It is simple and easy to navigate, and the author has a nice collection of links down the left side of the blog. It is clearly a liberal blog and the author clearly supports Tester, and many of the entries focus directly on the senate race. The entries do a nice job of balancing news and analysis and opinion, and there is no passionate raving. However, like all the other blogs that I looked at, I have no idea who the author is. I am told that his name is Colby Natale, but nothing else at all.

-Clancey Denis

Megan's Top Five [Permalink]

Wed Sep 20 19:56:29 EDT 2006

The Montana blogosphere may not be big, but it sure is loud.

Montana is not on the cutting-edge of blogging, but many of the left bloggers are very well-connected in Democratic circles, and especially in Tester’s campaign. There are VERY few conservative blogs, but those few stand proud and strong in their convictions that Burns is the right man for Montana. My ratings system is based on the number of posts; the level of partisan-shouting; and the amount of Burns-Tester chatter. And here they are, my top five:

>1.Left in the West

Matt Singer is considered the “top of the A-list of Montana bloggers,” and his connections within the state’s Democratic Party are impressive (he worked recently for Tester’s campaign). If partisanship on the left doesn’t bother you, this is the best site for breaking news from the Tester campaign and plenty of Burns bashing. Singer blogs all the time and for reporters in Richmond searching high and low for information about Montana in the blogosphere, it is welcome chatter. The mix of commentary and links to other sites is helpful, and Singer puts many issues into context. He offers a lot of background about the Abramoff-Burns connection and delves into Burns’ ties to the telecommunications industry.

>2.4&20 blackbirds

Jay Stevens provides more information about himself on his site than any other author. His writing is conversational and witty and he is very good at dissecting arguments found in the mainstream news media. His links section includes local and national news. This blog is a great resource for Montanans and out-of-staters.

>3.Billings Blog

Billings Blog provides very coherent analysis and tries to engage readers. The author understands who is his audience is- Montana political junkies in cyberspace (NOT a common variety) - and he speaks to both sides of the political spectrum. He gets a little long-winded on his reservations about blogging and the time he spends maintaining his site, but his political analysis is usually easy to read and understand. He is willing to take shots at Tester too, as he did on Aug. 20, 2006. He linked to a Great Falls Tribune article that revealed that Tester had decided not to participate in a Project Vote Smart survey. His site meter reveals that his site averages 78 hits per days.

>*BONUS: Check out this GREAT feature about MT’s left blogosphere*

>4.What’s Right in Montana

One of the reasons What’s Right in Montana (WRIM) gets the most daily comments of all the Montana blogs is that it is one of the few conservative spaces for liberal bloggers to challenge. This blog stands solidly on its own as it attacks Tester’s stance on the war in Iraq and the conservative view that Tester is too close to the liberal, national democrats. Since anyone can post on WRIM, much of the blogspace is taken up by comments. Although this site doesn’t really provide much breaking news, its role as one of the few conservative blogs is important.

>5. Hammond Report

Andy Hammond is another conservative in the more-liberal state blogosphere and he too is devoted to being heard amongst the defending opposition. However, whereas What’s Right in Montana focuses more specifically on the Burns-Tester race, the Hammond Report seems more devoted to defending the conservative cause in general. He praises Wal-Mart, defends the virtues of a market-based economy and defends Bush from an assassination from the extreme left.

- Megan Cummings

Who Cares about Abramoff? [Permalink]

Wed Sep 20 12:19:29 EDT 2006

Eric Iverson, Burns' new campaign manager, said that Burns is not a target of the Department of Justice probe into corrupt politicians who were involved with Jack Abramoff. Here is Jennifer McKee's column. However, as Left in the West points out, 'not being the target' does not necessarily equate to not being investigated.

Regardless of what Burns did or did not do, there is another issue I want to bring up here. The guy is not a good judge of character. His former chief of staff, Will Brooke looks as if he is as wrapped up with Abramoff as anybody and the Vanity Fair article about Abramoff said his staff used Abramoff's Signatures restaurant "as their cafeteria." I have always thought the ability to choose good people to help you was one of the most important qualities to have because a politician simply cannot do everything.

An example, despite all that has happened I still believe George Bush to be a more or less well-intentioned, honest man. However, with that staff he has surrounding him I think it is obvious why his presidency is becoming a disaster. It seems to me that Burns would be a prime candidate to make the same mistakes considering his past associations.

-af

Summary [Permalink]

Tue Sep 19 21:02:06 EDT 2006

Here is a brilliant summary of the major issues in this campaign. Worth 30 seconds of your time, I promise.

-af

Rehberg Rips Blogs [Permalink]

Tue Sep 19 20:31:33 EDT 2006

The Republican incumbent for Montana's only seat in Congress, Dennis Rehberg, took a page out of Burns' book last night in a radio interview. However, unlike Burns, he was wise enough not to press a political hotbutton. Instead he ripped blogs saying "We have to correct those blogs. And we will have to deal in the future with blogs, they can say anything they want."

His response was in response to a question submitted by cece, a well known left blogger in Montana. Check out her post on the episode here. Her post is the third most clicked on lefty blogs today.

Right now the only other blog to catch on that I've seen is 4and20, I'll be interested to see if others pick it up. This seems like the kind of stuff bloggers love to feed on, and since it's directed at us I was thinking it would catch fire a bit more. That said, it's only 24 hours old.

Rehberg getting some attention could have an interesting effect on the Senate race. Right now everybody is focusing on it, so changing the focus might give the candidates a slight breather to regroup. It seems like Burns would probably benefit the most from a break since it seems he is constantly in hot water, fending off attacks rather than moving forward with any sort of plan.

-af

Tues. Sept. 19 [Permalink]

Tue Sep 19 08:15:03 EDT 2006

It looks like Burns is in ethics hot water again. A Burns spokesman confirmed that the Senator flew on a private plane chartered by Vontage Holding, Corp., after pushing legislation for the company>. Campaign finance rules allow senators to fly on private planes, as long as the senator reimburses the company for the equivalent of a first-class ticket. Burns will reimburse the company, his spokesman said.

- Megan Cummings

The Curse of the Incumbent [Permalink]

Mon Sep 18 20:06:33 EDT 2006

Dr. Jim Lopach is the chair of the Political Science Department at the University of Montana. He spoke with me about the important factors driving this race.

Q: What are the most important factors in this race?

A: I think the election will turn on two factors: Senator Burns' incumbency and dislike of President Bush. Many voters will want the continuity and benefits of majority-party control in the Senate. But many others will vote not so much for Tester as against Bush/Burns. Right now I think the outcome is still a toss up.

Q: How could Burns’ status as an incumbent help him?

A: His incumbency would be an asset because he’s been in the U.S. Senate for 18 years so he has done so many things for Montana in terms of projects and constituency favors.

Q: How could Burns’ status as an incumbent hurt him?

A: The weakness of long-term incumbent is that he can be betrayed as becoming distant from the state and not paying attention to local issues and constituents. Any incumbent who has been in office for long time can be alleged that he has lost touch with constituents. Polls show that the issue people across nation are concerned about is how much time the senator spends at work and at task. If his opponent Tester can make some points about that, he could win. What the polls show is that voters generally in the nation want their senators to those two things- pay attention to problems at home and work in Washington.

Q: How have Burns’ numerous verbal gaffes been accepted in Montana?

A: Senator Burns did not have extensive formal education, which is displayed in many of his statements. His grammar and syntax often grate upon the sensibilities of better educated people, but don't bother many grassroots Montanans. To his credit, Burns is very open and direct, presenting a refreshing contrast to the usual, carefully scripted and cautious politician.

Q: How big will the Abramoff issue play?

A: It is a big issue among Democrats and some Independents. Montana is 1/3 Republicans, 1/3 Democrats and 1/3 Independent. The Independent voters are very important for which way they break. The Abramoff connection can be used to show Burns is not serving Montanans, but that he’s serving the people who help serve his campaign.

Q: Do some Montanans want to keep Burns in office because he has a lot of political influence in Washington?

A: They do. Throughout the nation, the voters want somebody with the influence and the majority and that’s what he’s playing up.

Q: How will the Tester campaign counter-act Burns’ assertion?

A: On the other side they’re trying to show that Burns has served the special interest groups more than Montanans. The single issue is negative voting to the degree not so much for Tester, but whether voters will vote against Bush and Burns. Bush and Burns are being presented as a unit by the Tester campaign. Like other places in nation, Iraq is a major issue, and Tester will try to make Burns seem too close to Bush on this issue.

And here’s a bonus Q&A with Shailagh Murray, the Washington Post’s Congressional Reporter. I submitted a question to her “Post Politics Hour” today:

Q: How can Jon Tester show Montanans that Conrad Burns’ incumbency and insider status in Washington is a bad thing? Burns has brought a lot of money back to the state…

A: You are referring to the appropriator factor. It’s always a wild card in congressional races. Who looks a gift horse in the mouth? Especially in states like Montana, where federal government plays such a huge role in economics in the state.

- Megan Cummings

The Burns-Abramoff Connection: A Democrat's View [Permalink]

Mon Sep 18 14:54:50 EDT 2006

Conrad Burns' connection to Jack Abramoff is dominating the news and fueling the Montana Democrats, even though polls have not changed significantly in months and the race remains very close, according to Monday's Washington Post article.

According to Jessica Rhoades, the communications director for the Montana Democratic Party, Burns will be the next to face investigation about his part in the bribery scandal.

"We have asked Burns multiple times to provide proof that he is not under investigation," Rhoades said. "Burns has asked the Senate committee for written proof that he is not under investigation, and they have refused to give him that proof.

"The fact that Burns and his campaign are trying to downplay the fact that he is involved in a bribery scandal is one more sign that Burns is out of touch and it's time for him to retire."

Jon Tester has created a 60-second web-based ad in which he accuses Burns of lying about his relationship with Abramoff, changing his vote on issues after receiving money from Abramoff and Abramoff's clients, and acknowledging a "culture of cronyism" in Washington D.C.

Rhoades agreed with Tester's assessment of Washington D.C. and said that Montanans are passing an ethics reform initiative to help combat corruption.

"The only way to change this [cronyism] is to change the people we send there to represent us," Rhoades said.

"Burns is going to spend $10 million trying to mislead Montanans. But Tester has pulled ahead. I do think that Tester is going to win, but the race is far from over."

- Rachel Byrd

This Weekend in Montana Politics [Permalink]

Mon Sep 18 00:17:35 EDT 2006

Conrad Burns is likely to come under heavy scrutiny in connection to the Jack Abramoff probe, but some suggest that this will have little impact on the race.

Defining Issues [Permalink]

Tue Sep 12 00:53:43 EDT 2006

The Montana Senate race is a race only because Conrad Burns cannot keep his nose clean.

On September 8, 2005 Burns led both of the potential Democratic challengers (Tester eventually won the nomination) by 12 percentage points in a Rasmussen poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Montana%20Senate.htm)

However, around that time Democrats began hammering Burns on his connections to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. In a fiercely independent state where Native Americans are the largest minority (6%), Democrats saw an opportunity to test the effectiveness of Abramoff's scandal. Results were fairly good, as Burns' lead has evaporated and Jack Abramoff is a household name in Montana.

"I can self-destruct in one sentence" Burns has said, as the Washington Post quipped "It seems Burns has spent a good part of the summer testing his theory." (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/22/AR2006082201082.html)

The race began in earnest when Senator Conrad Burns called his house painter a "nice little Guatemalan man" in June, then suggested the painter was an illegal immigrant. Burns committed a second gaffe in July when he harangued a fire-fighting team from Staunton, Virginia at the Billings airport, saying they had done a "piss-poor job." To top of his comedy of errors Burns said that terrorists are a faceless enemy who "drive taxis in the daytime and kill at night" during a fundraiser two weeks ago.

In the wake of those comments Burns finds himself in a dead heat with Democratic candidate Jon Tester. The top issue Tester lists on his webpage is ethics and he will clearly saturate voters with his message that he is an untainted farmer who is involved in politics as a concerned citizen while maintaining Burns has become a symbol what Tester calls a "culture of corruption" in national politics. Burns' best counterpunch seems to be trying to paint Tester as an Eastern liberal, a dicey proposition considering Tester's Montana upbringing and brief political career. It simply does not seem like a particularly gainful strategy to call someone an Eastern-establishment liberal when the target has lived his entire life in Montana and still operates a farm, as Tester’s website claims.

Another Montana-specific issue is the wildfires that have plagued the state throughout a summer of drought. Burns landed in hot water for lambasting fire-fighters but his comments were a reflection of significant frustration many Montanans on fire-fighting policy. Tester has not made any specific comments on the issue.

Subtle Differences [Permalink]

Mon Sep 11 21:21:15 EDT 2006

In a Senate race between contestants that seem to have more in common than they do in opposition, Montana residents are going to have to dig deep to find viable differences on which to base their loyalties.

Republican incumbent Conrad Burns was born on a farm in Montana and went to an agricultural college. He supports the rights of local landowners and farmers and advocates the spread of technology to help rural populations. Democratic challenger Jon Tester grew up in a small Montana town and now runs an organic farm. He has served on both the Big Sandy Soil Conservation Service Committee and the Chouteau County Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service Committee in his home state. Both men have governmental experience, Burns as a three-year senate incumbent and Tester as a four-session member of the Montana State Senate. Burns hopes to bring broadband internet service to rural Montana to help struggling businesses. Tester supports affordable energy for all of Montana. Both Burns and Tester seem intent on portraying themselves as common men aiming to help the common man.

It is only when close attention is paid to their core platforms that the two candidates begin to differentiate themselves. Both Burns and Tester support the war in Iraq, but Burns, a former Marine, is much stronger in his support of the Administration's war agenda. He claims, on his website www.conradburns.com that he trusts completely American troops to carry out what he knows to be a legitimate war. Burns even goes so far as to claim that he "will seek to prepare America for future threats by giving her new capabilities and strengths so we will never be subject to another nation's strength."

While Tester was never in the armed services, he too supports the war in Iraq, but to a lesser degree than Burns. He claims, on his official website www.testerforsenate.com that he supports American troops wherever they might be in the world. He acknowledges, however, that the information that formed the basis for entering Iraq was inaccurate and clearly calls for Bush to articulate an exit plan.

Both Burns and Tester support reforms that help their rural constituents, but Tester seems to extend his support further than Burns. Burns focuses his attention on farmers and large landowners, calling for measures to better serve their interests. Tester supports these same measures, but also focuses on the sovereignty of Native-American tribes, a large population in Montana, and hopes to improve their health system and overall rights. While Burns has no official position on Native-American rights, MSNBC has quoted him as saying, "Nobody has done anything to make me think they're trying to tomahawk me," www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14608987/ a remark that surely does not seem sympathetic to their cause.

Burns and Tester both support the securing of the country's borders and ports, but, like on the war, Burns takes a much stronger stand on the issue of illegal immigration. He claims on his website that illegal immigrants directly hurt the nation and he does not believe that any illegal immigrants should be granted any form of amnesty. Tester also claims on his website that "becoming a citizen must continue to be a respectful, deliberate, and meaningful process," but does not suggest that immigrants should be denied lawful access to the country.

Conrad Burns and Jon Tester, opposing candidates for Montana's US Senate seat, have very similar platforms. Despite their party differences, both seem to support many of the same issues and share the same views on political issues. When closely examined, however, the two men do differ in their support of many key issues. These slight differences may well prove to be the deciding factors in a tight race for Montana's Senate seat.

-Clancey Denis

Taking the Race Back Home [Permalink]

Sun Sep 10 19:14:50 EDT 2006

On Sept. 5, Conrad Burns hired fifth-generation Montanan Erik Iverson to become a senior policy advisor to the Burns re-election campaign. Most of the Burns campaign’s other top staff are from out-of-state. Is Burns trying to bring his re-election campaign back home to Montana? Why now?

A Sept. 1 USA Today/ Gallup poll showed Jon Tester leading Burns 48 percent to 45 percent. This race is a referendum on Burns- a three-time incumbent who votes consistently with the national Republicans who control Congress.

At a time when 76 percent of Americans are angry with the direction of the country, Burns is in the fight of his life (CNN, America Votes 2006). Burns’ campaign has already spent $5 million battling perceptions that he is part of Washington’s corrupt Republican machine (Great Falls Tribune, Sept. 6, 2006). Convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff told Vanity Fair in April, “Every appropriation we wanted [from Burns' committee], we got ... I mean, it's a little difficult for him to run from that record.” Burns also received $150,000 in contributions from Abramoff, his co-workers and his clients over the past five years (Time, Apr. 14, 2006).

Tester, on the other hand, is true-blue Montana. His flat-top crew cut screams Montana farmer. The Democrats need to capitalize on Tester’s outsider appeal and make Burns seem like he’s too much of a Washington insider to care about Montana.

Sensing the unpredictability of the race in the Big Sky state, national heavy-hitters on both sides of the political realm have poured into Montana. Vice President Dick Cheney and First Lady Laura Bush both attended Burns fundraisers (Great Falls Tribune, Sept. 2, 2006). Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer praised Tester’s campaign last week (Billings Gazette, Aug. 30, 2006).

In addition, as Time magazine points out, Burns is “serially offensive” when it comes to saying the wrong thing (Time, Apr. 14, 2006). His habit for putting his foot in his mouth continued last week when he told Republicans at a fundraiser that the United States is fighting an army of terrorists who “drive taxi cabs in the daytime and kill at night” (All Headline News, Sept. 2, 2006). Before attacking taxi cab drivers, Burns- a staunch foe of illegal immigration- wondered whether “the nice little Guatemalan man” fixing his house might be an illegal a